Sunday, April 09, 2006

Playoff Hunt #9

This report for the Western Conference discusses the results for games between April 2nd and April 8th. The point predictions are for the week April 9th to April 15th.

Period of Analysis 02-Apr-06 to 15-Apr-06

SeedTeamCurrent PointsLast 10 PointsPredicted Points
Detroit picked up all the available points this week. They beat Minny, Calgary and the CBJ’s twice. This week the Wings host the Oilers before going out the road to meet St Louis and Chicago. The President’s Trophy looks to be a lock for the Wings as they are eight up on their closest rivals and nine up on the rest of the west. For the sake of the Canucks let’s hope there is no collective let up in the Wings. A win against Edmonton, their only serious opponent this week, would suite the Canucks fine. Looks like another six point week for the Wings.

Detroit has five games left. Three road and two home. The Wings could go as high as 126. Based on their results in the last twenty they will reach 125 points.

This week the Stars dropped a home game to the Sharks. They beat the Ducks and the Dogs. Dallas continues its road trip to San Jose Sunday night. Three road games in four nights. They face a desperate Sharks team. I figure the only plus the Canucks can draw from this that the Stars may want to avenge the home loss to the Sharks last week. Modano is day-to-day with a wonky knee. I figure Dallas for six points this week.

Dallas has five games left. Three road and two home. The Stars could go as high as 117. Based on their results in the last twenty they will reach 114 points.

Calgary picked up points in every game this week but still lost to Detroit (SO) and Vancouver (OTL). Calgary has games with Anaheim (home), Colorado (home) and LA (road) this week. Kiprusoff is still playing unbelievable. I saw the game with Vancouver. Had the Kipper not kept his team in it the game could have been five or six zip in the second period. Kiprusoff is a MVP candidate. Anaheim is a hot team. Give Cowtown four points this week.

Calgary has four games left. Two on the road and two at home. The Flames could go as high as 106. Based on their results in the last twenty they will reach 104 points.

Early in the week Nashville continued their tail spin. Again, they finally won thanks to the St Louis Blues. Other than the Canucks who doesn’t love those Blues. This week brings three more dances with the bottom feeders. Blues-Minny-Dogs should produce as many as 6 points but more likely 4. Give them the loss in Phoenix.

The Preds have four games left. The Preds could go as high as 106 points. Their results would predict low at 101. The end result will be closer to the 103 given their easy opponents.

The Canard take it out on the road and into the death triangle this week. The order is Vancouver, Calgary then Edmonton. They end the week in San Jose’s Shark Tank. Huge games all round here. However, Anaheim needs only about one or two points to land them in the post season. As well, wins in Vancouver, Edmonton or San Jose could end those respective teams’ seasons. First up is Vancouver who recently beat Calgary by the will and determination of Ed Jovanovski. Although these same Canucks were on a three game losing skid including being embarrassed by the Ducks on the Pond last Sunday afternoon. Vancouver is a desperate team with home ice advantage. After the game the Ducks will hop the commuter flight over the Rocks to Calgary. Here I see a bit more success. Calgary has their position for the post season secured. I’d expect to see Kipper get a night off somewhere and why not against Anaheim who they face twice in the next two weeks. Then it is up Highway 2 with a day off to visit the city with that big shopping mall. Edmonton is also a desperate and needs to win two of four to get to the 95 points plateau. The week ends in San Jose. By then the Sharks will have played four games including a home and home set with Vancouver. The Sharks need to win three of six to reach 95. If the Sharks have one or more wins between now and the Anaheim game – look out. Otherwise, it will be a meaningless game and the Ducks will prevail. Give the Ducks four points this week via wins in Calgary and San Jose.

Anaheim has five games left. Every game is against a team fighting for playoff position including games with Edmonton, San Jose and Vancouver. They also play Calgary twice. Anaheim could go as high as 104. Based on their results in the last twenty they will reach 101 points. Given the strength of the opponents 99 points might be very optimistic.

Joe Sakic and the boys had two bottom feeder wins and a lose to San Jose. At 92 points the Av’s need to win two of the five remaining to reach 96 points. They should get these points early with easy games at home against Minny and Phoenix. The other two games this week are on the road with Calgary then Vancouver. I guess a split of these two. Give Colorado six points this week.

Colorado has five games left. All at home before going out to the death triangle – Calgary-Vancouver-Edmonton as their last three. Colorado could go as high as 102. Based on their results in the last twenty they will reach 98 points. Given four points in the next two games, picking up two more on the road trip to end the season at 98 and in the playoffs sounds about right. If they lose either of the first two, you might wonder about the Av’s picking up four points in three games on the road out west.

Edmonton picked up five of what should have been six easy points. There was a huge controversy in Minny as the video review didn’t pick up a Edmonton goal that was scored and Edmonton went on to lose in OT. This week the Oil continues their road trip and face St Louis then Detroit. They then return home to face the Duckies. St Louis should be a win and Detroit a loss. The Anaheim game will require a win if the Oil is going to make the play offs. Give Edmonton four points this week.

The Oilers have four games left. Two at home after completing the remaining two on the current road trip. The final game of this week against Anaheim. This game could be more meaningful to Edmonton. Edmonton could go as high as 99 points. Based on results of the last twenty the total looks like 96. Winning against Anaheim and Colorado is going to be important to the Oil.

8San Jose891397
The Sharks did what they have to do. Win. They hold their own destiny more than any other bubble team. The Sharks play Dallas (home) and Phoenix (road) before the two games in two nights with Vancouver. They end the hosting Anaheim. At 89 points the Sharks need six points to reach 95. They have many options and can get to 95 without a win against Vancouver. Most likely though the best bet is a home win against the Modano-less Stars, win in Phoenix, and split with Vancouver.

With six games left the Sharks could go as high as 101 points. They have two road games and four home games. Based on their last twenty their projection is 97.

Outside looking in.

The Canucks could make the playoffs. I think they need help. The bubble teams they could reach are Colorado, Edmonton and San Jose. San Jose is the realistic target. Last week's lost to Anaheim and Los Angeles down in La La Land hurt far more than they realized. Saturday night they took a two – zip lead in to the third period and promptly threw that away. When desperation turned to panic, Ed Jovanovski put himself in the right place at 2:27 of the extra frame to score the winner. Jovo played 17:26 in his first game in two and a half months. Eddy seemed to provide the spark and leadership that the Nuck’s have lacked for sometime. We’ll even forgive him that he was the one in the sin bin when the Flames got their first goal half way through the third period. Vancouver’s regular season ends this week. Does Vancouver’s season end this week? Likely it does. The games remaining are Anaheim, San Jose back to back and Colorado. The Nuck’s have 89 points and need six to reach the 95 level. Their games are at home with the exception of the two hours and a bit flight down to San Jose.

With four games left, the Canucks could go as high as 97 points. Based on their last twenty results the predicted total is one short at 94. If Vancouver wins them all they still need San Jose to drop a couple along the way.

10Los Angeles85687
LA’s imploded. They can at best hope for 91 points. Their done….

Current Dance Partners.

If the playoff were to start only a few days early on April 16th my predictions for match ups are as follows:

Detroit – Edmonton
Dallas – San Jose
Calgary – Colorado
Nashville – Anaheim


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  1. Anonymous12:19 pm

    If Vancouver wins them all they still need San Jose to drop a couple along the way.

    But if Vancouver wins them all then San Jose must have dropped the couple games against Vancouver. The maximum number of points for Edmonton and Vancouver is the same at 97 points, and if Vancouver doesn't allow San Jose to get any loser point in the process, then the maximum for SJ is also 97 points. In that case, Vancouver would win the tiebreaker based on wins; Edmonton would be out.

  2. Slow down I'm dizzy. Yes I think if Van beats Ana and Det beats Edm all bets are off... or on. Depending if you want to see the glass as half full or half empty.

  3. Anonymous4:00 pm

    No, I just wanted to point out that before Monday night's game, if the Canucks won all remaining 4 (they didn't we all now know), they would have 97 points in the end, and that would be enough for them to pass both Edmonton and San Jose in the standings, assuming they won in regular time against the Sharks. Simply put, they controlled their destiny before Monday night's game; they'd get in no matter what if they won 4.

    Now, they need help from teams like Detroit, Anaheim, Colorado, or even Los Angeles to beat Edmonton and San Jose. The only consolation right now is that the Canucks wins the tiebreaker over Edmonton and San Jose, so they only need to tie one of them in points to get in.