Sunday, April 02, 2006

Playoff Hunt #8

This report for the Western Conference discusses the results for games between March 26th and April 1st. The point predictions are for the week April 2nd to April 8th.

Period of Analysis 26-Mar-06 to 8-Apr-06

SeedTeamCurrent PointsLast 10 PointsPredicted Points
Stop the presses! Detroit failed to pick up all the available points. The Wings dropped a game to Chicago of all teams. The loss was in over time so only one point was forsaken. Since the Olympic break the Wings have lost two outright, lost two via the Shoot Out and has now lost one in OT. This week the Wings play Minny and Calgary on the road. They return home to meet the CBJ’s in a home and away twin bill next Friday and Saturday. With a six point cushion on Dallas, the questions this week is when does Mike Babcock take his foot of the gas in preparation for the second season. Calgary, who played strong in their last two, represents the only significant opponent this week. Columbus has fancied themselves in the spoiler role. Nash and the lads are on a five win streak. Prior to this was a five game losing streak so I’m not to worried about the CBJ’s against Detroit. Give the Wings six points and make note of the predicted loss being in Calgary.

Detroit has seven games left. Five road and two home. Two are against teams in the playoff hunt. Calgary (road) this week and Edmonton (home) next week. The Wings could go as high as 122. Based on their results in the last twenty they will reach 120 points.

This week was pretty much as expected. LA did pull off an upset on Saturday. This week the games are all within their own division with San Jose visiting followed by a trip out to the Duck Pond and Phoenix. I figure Dallas for six points this week. Sorry Lexie.

Dallas has six games left. Three road and three home. One or three are against teams in the playoff hunt. Depends on how you view the Sharks. The game mid week with Anaheim is the toughest match up. The two with the Sharks, at home this week, and out in the Shark Tank next week, could be key to the Sharks’ success. The Stars could go as high as 114. Based on their results in the last twenty they will reach 111 points.

Calgary ended the week on a high. They lost early to Dallas. Then beat LA. They went down 2-1 to Colorado then poured five in to win 6-3 in a battle for first in the division. The week closed with a Battle of Alberta notched up with a convincing win over Edmonton in Edmonton. Calgary has a busy week with four games in seven nights. Detroit, Phoenix and Minny come to the Saddledome. The week ends with a hop out to Vancouver for a loss to the Canucks. Give Cowtown six points this week.

Calgary has seven games left. Two on the road and the rest at home. Five are against teams in the playoff hunt albeit one is Detroit. The Flames face both Vancouver and Detroit this week. The Flames could go as high as 106. Based on their results in the last twenty they will reach 100 points.

Nashville has been in a little tail spin. They finally won again thanks to the St Louis Blues. This week brings four dances with the bottom feeders. CBJ’s, Hawks-Blues-Hawks should produce as many as 8 points but more likely 6. Give Columbus the win.

The Preds have seven games left. With all the games against bottom feeders, they are a lock for the 4th seed. The Preds could go as high as 108 points. Their results would predict low at 102. The end result will be closer to the 108 given the opponents.

Burkies Duckies cooled a little this week. They picked up one home ice win against the Stars. The Ducks face a big challenge this week. Vancouver visits Sunday afternoon. They then play LA, Dallas and LA. Next week it just gets better with a stroll through the Northwest death triangle and a season ending visit to the Shark Tank. We are about to see how real these Ducks are. I predict it to unfold this way: Loss to Vancouver, two wins over LA and a loss to Dallas. Give the Ducks four points this week.

Anaheim has eight games left. Three at home before going out for the last five on the road. Every games is against a team fighting for playoff position. The Ducks should end LA’s hope this week. Anaheim could go as high as 104. Based on their results in the last twenty they will reach 99 points. Given the strength of the opponents 99 points would be very optimistic.

Joe Sakic has 17 points in his last 9 games. Unfortunely Joe can’t carry a whole team. The Av’s lost to Edmonton and Calgary. They beat the Ducks. The schedule is fairly easy one for the Av’s this week. Only three games home games with Hawks, Sharks and Blues visiting the Pepsi Center. Give the Av’s an easy six points this week.

Anaheim has seven games left. All at home before going out to Calgary and Vancouver for the last two. The Sharks are the other team in the hunt that the Av’s will face. Colorado could go as high as 102. Based on their results in the last twenty they will reach 96 points. Given the strength of the opponents the total will be closer to 102 than 96. Maybe about 99 points.

The Canucks are on track to make the playoffs. They need wins in Anaheim Sunday afternoon and in LA Monday night. Then they sit and wait for the week to unfold and the Flames to arrive next Saturday for the late edition of HNIC. The Av’s and Ducks are at 88 points. A win Sunday will leap frog the Nucks up to 5th seed. The idle period that follows will see them drop back to 7th or 8th seed.

Vancouver has seven games left. Three road games and four at home. All the games are with teams fighting for playoff position. The Canucks could go as high as 101 points. Based on their last twenty results the predicted total is that magic number 95.

An easy six points for Edmonton this week. They host Phoenix Monday then go out on a four game road trip to the mid west. Thursday/Friday will see them in Minny and Chicago. No worries there I think. Give Edmonton six points this week.

The Oilers have six games left. Two at home and a four game road trip. Two games are against play off teams – one being Detroit. The final game of the year is against Anaheim. This game could be meaningful for both teams. Edmonton could go as high as 100 points. Based on results of the last twenty the total looks like 93. I’m not sure 93 is enough to make the second season. Edmonton is going to have to win everything except the one game in Detroit.

Outside looking in.

9San Jose831288

The Sharks didn’t do as well as they should have in this last week. Two loses to the CBJ’s and the Coyotes followed up with a OTL to the same Coyotes hurt them. This week gets no easier. The Sharks go out on the road to Dallas, Colorado and LA. They may pick up one or two points in LA. Maybe by next week the Sharks are out of it.

With eight games left the Sharks could go as high as 99 points. They have five road games and three home games. If the magic number is 95 points the Sharks can only drop two games from now to the end of the season. Seven of eight opponents are in the hunt and the other is Phoenix who just beat them twice. The Sharks are not going to make it.

10Los Angeles831285
LA experienced what many team have this year. A trip to Western Canada that saw them play three games in four nights. The order was Vancouver, Calgary then Edmonton. Three losses. Say good night Jeremy. Good night Jeremy. The game is going to miss you. The win picked is against the Sharks on Thusday.

Current Dance Partners.

If the playoff were to start only one week early on April 9th my predictions for match ups are as follows:

Detroit – Anaheim or Edmonton
Dallas – Edmonton or Anaheim
Calgary – Vancouver
Nashville – Colorado


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1 comment:

  1. Very nice post. I posted a link to it on my site, and added you to my Hockey Links. Found your blog via Canucks op-ed yesterday. Would appreciate being added to your links.

    PS. this would be an email, except I could not find an email address on your site.